adminIn recent developments, fewer derivative traders are placing new bets on Bitcoin right now. Open interest has barely moved — up just 1.50% to $55 billion — and more futures positions closed than opened in the past 24 hours. Volume dropped 21% to $30 billion. The market is waiting. Sellers Have Had The Upper Hand For Over A Year The waiting may be approaching an end, according to on-chain data firm CryptoQuant. Analyst Moreno published findings showing Bitcoin is nearing a test of two key metrics that have defined its market structure since early 2024. How it responds to that test, reports indicate, could determine the direction of the next significant move. At the center of the analysis is the Short-Term Holder MVRV — a metric that measures whether recent buyers are sitting on gains or losses. Bitcoin Is Close to Flipping the Market Structure “A sustained reclaim of the Realized Price, paired with the MVRV stabilizing and trending above 1.0, would signal a structural regime change.” – By @MorenoDV_ pic.twitter.com/AsxsyFEyzi — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) May 1, 2026 Since early 2024, it has printed a sequence of lower highs even as Bitcoin’s price climbed to new records. When BTC hit roughly $72,000 in March 2024, the MVRV peaked above 1.4. By November 2024, Bitcoin pushed toward $106,000, but the metric failed to reach its previous high. The pattern repeated in July 2025, when Bitcoin hit around $120,000 — yet the MVRV continued lower, tracing out a clear descending trendline. That trendline has acted as a ceiling on every bounce since. The MVRV is now approaching that same ceiling again. Buyers Need To Reclaim A Key Cost Level At the same time, Bitcoin is closing in on the Short-Term Holder Realized Price — the average price at which recent buyers acquired their coins. This level matters because it splits the short-term holder base between profit and loss. When Bitcoin trades below it, recent buyers are underwater and more likely to sell into any rally. When it trades above, selling pressure eases. According to CryptoQuant’s analysis, a confirmed move above the Realized Price — paired with the MVRV holding above 1.0 — would mark a meaningful change in structure. It would signal that recent buyers are no longer a consistent drag on price, giving any upward move a stronger foundation. Failure to hold above that level, on the other hand, would leave the existing structure intact. US Spot Buyers Are Still Sitting On The Sidelines Other data points to continued caution. The Coinbase Premium Index — which tracks the price difference between Coinbase and other exchanges, often used as a gauge of US institutional demand — sits at -0.018%. Negative readings suggest US spot buyers are not driving purchases. Bitcoin has recovered from earlier lows to briefly touch $79,200, but has since pulled back to around $78,300. Featured image from MetaAI, chart from TradingView
Looking closer, market participants highlight key drivers such as liquidity flows, macro risk appetite, regulatory headlines, and on-chain activity. Short-term swings often reflect liquidation cascades and funding imbalances, while spot volumes and exchange inflows set the broader tone.
Analysis: The medium-term picture hinges on whether buyers can sustain momentum without excessive leverage. If flows continue favoring majors like BTC and ETH, altcoins could experience a staggered rotation instead of a broad-based rally. Meanwhile, policy clarity in key jurisdictions remains a decisive catalyst; clearer rules typically compress risk premia and attract institutional allocations. Beyond price action, on-chain metrics such as active addresses, fees, and stablecoin velocity help validate trend strength.
Outlook: Over the next few weeks, observers will watch price acceptance above recent resistance, derivatives positioning, and ETF-related flows. A constructive setup would feature rising spot demand, contained leverage, and improving breadth across sectors such as DeFi, infrastructure, and Layer-2 ecosystems.
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