adminIn recent developments, bitcoin is trading at weekly RSI levels historically seen near bear market bottoms, signaling that selling pressure may be easing. While confirmation is needed, the market is in a zone often marking late-stage capitulation. The key question: was the recent drop the final flush, or is one last shakeout still ahead? RSI Compression Signals Downside Exhaustion According to crypto analyst Batman, Bitcoin’s weekly RSI has fallen back into the same territory that historically marked prior bear market bottoms. This momentum zone has repeatedly appeared during late-stage capitulation phases, making it a critical signal that the market could be nearing another major turning point. However, Batman is clear that this does not confirm the bottom is already in, stressing the importance of waiting for proper confirmation before declaring a reversal. Still, he notes that when RSI compresses to these levels on the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin has typically been much closer to a structural low than to the beginning of a fresh collapse. Reflecting on the 2022 bear cycle, Batman points out that once RSI entered this extreme zone, price managed to print one final lower low. However, that move occurred very close to the ultimate bottom, indicating that most of the downside had already played out by the time momentum reached such depressed readings. The analyst concludes that probabilities matter more than precision. From his perspective, when Bitcoin trades at these weekly RSI levels, it historically represents a zone where strategic accumulation becomes increasingly attractive. Bitcoin’s Six Consecutive Weekly Lower Highs — A Rare Signal In a recent weekly Bitcoin analysis, SuperBro pointed out that BTC has now printed six consecutive weekly lower highs, a rare structural pattern. The last time this occurred was during the COVID crash in 2020, a period marked by extreme volatility and eventual macro reversal. Price is currently slipping beneath the 200-week EMA and the volume Point of Control (POC), though the weekly candle has not yet closed. A reclaim of the POC before the close could trigger a sharp upside reaction and signal that the breakdown attempt is losing strength. Just below current levels sits the rising 200-week SMA, adding another layer of higher-timeframe support. RSI remains at extreme levels, suggesting that momentum is already deeply stretched. When you combine oversold conditions with six straight lower highs pressing into major support, the case for sustained downside continuation becomes less convincing. Beyond the near-term structure, the broader megaphone formation remains intact. If that macro pattern ultimately plays out, its upper trajectory projects potential targets north of $300,000, keeping the long-term expansion thesis firmly on the table despite current compression.
Looking closer, market participants highlight key drivers such as liquidity flows, macro risk appetite, regulatory headlines, and on-chain activity. Short-term swings often reflect liquidation cascades and funding imbalances, while spot volumes and exchange inflows set the broader tone.
Analysis: The medium-term picture hinges on whether buyers can sustain momentum without excessive leverage. If flows continue favoring majors like BTC and ETH, altcoins could experience a staggered rotation instead of a broad-based rally. Meanwhile, policy clarity in key jurisdictions remains a decisive catalyst; clearer rules typically compress risk premia and attract institutional allocations. Beyond price action, on-chain metrics such as active addresses, fees, and stablecoin velocity help validate trend strength.
Outlook: Over the next few weeks, observers will watch price acceptance above recent resistance, derivatives positioning, and ETF-related flows. A constructive setup would feature rising spot demand, contained leverage, and improving breadth across sectors such as DeFi, infrastructure, and Layer-2 ecosystems.
Original source: link
