adminIn recent developments, after weeks of renewed optimism, many in the Bitcoin market now believe the tide could finally be turning. While the premier cryptocurrency’s price action has been steadily turning around since the start of April, the current on-chain structure suggests expectations might be overestimated. According to an on-chain analyst, BTC’s recovery process is unlikely to occur in a few weeks. Bitcoin Bottom Could Take Six Months To Form: Analyst In a May 2nd post on the X platform, crypto pundit Axel Adler Jr. shared an on-chain insight into the recovery path of Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. This on-chain observation is based on an adjusted model of the Realized Price Bands metric that reflects the average cost basis of different market participants. The Adjusted Realized Price Bands model is calibrated to only account for Bitcoin’s live circulating supply, filtering the effect of the dormant — albeit significant — portion of the coin’s total supply. This metric shows when significant holders, who are likely to make market decisions, are at a loss or near a loss, signaling historical accumulation zones. Highlighting data from CryptoQuant, Adler Jr. revealed that the lower bound of the Adjusted Realized Price Bands model, known as the “RP Alive,” is now below $59,000. According to the on-chain analyst, this price zone could mark the start of a Bitcoin bottom formation, suggesting the market leader might still have one more leg down. Adler Jr., however, noted that Bitcoin’s price being near the bottom doesn’t guarantee an immediate reversal, as bottom formation isn’t a “one or two week process.” The analyst postulated that the base case for the bottom formation is around six months. BTC Bottom Formation Depends On Return Of Market Demand Adler Jr. further explained the rationale for the six-month base case conclusion, noting that demand remains the core driver of bottom formations. The on-chain analyst then mentioned that real demand forms only over the long term, not on emotion or local bounces. In essence, the on-chain analyst believes the bottom formation will only begin when the investors start to “see forward-looking value again,” and genuine spot demand returns to the market. Unfortunately, recent on-chain data shows that BTC’s apparent demand remains weak. As of this writing, the price of BTC is around $78,458, with no significant movement in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the flagship cryptocurrency is up nearly 2% on the weekly timeframe.
Looking closer, market participants highlight key drivers such as liquidity flows, macro risk appetite, regulatory headlines, and on-chain activity. Short-term swings often reflect liquidation cascades and funding imbalances, while spot volumes and exchange inflows set the broader tone.
Analysis: The medium-term picture hinges on whether buyers can sustain momentum without excessive leverage. If flows continue favoring majors like BTC and ETH, altcoins could experience a staggered rotation instead of a broad-based rally. Meanwhile, policy clarity in key jurisdictions remains a decisive catalyst; clearer rules typically compress risk premia and attract institutional allocations. Beyond price action, on-chain metrics such as active addresses, fees, and stablecoin velocity help validate trend strength.
Outlook: Over the next few weeks, observers will watch price acceptance above recent resistance, derivatives positioning, and ETF-related flows. A constructive setup would feature rising spot demand, contained leverage, and improving breadth across sectors such as DeFi, infrastructure, and Layer-2 ecosystems.
Original source: link
